Knowledge-Based Decision Making in Complex Environments: Methodological Aspects of Proactive Airport Security Management

Mobility, particularly air transport, is vital to the economic stability and growth of a nation. It symbolizes national self-confidence and selfconception. As a result commercial aviation remains a preferred target for attacks by terrorists and other offenders. Security measures intended to render these threats harmless have mostly been introduced in response to specific occurrences, thus allowing the potential attackers to always remain one step ahead. As this approach seems inappropriate for dealing with future security threats, this paper provides a proactive approach to identification of future threats and their coverage by airport security processes and technologies. To meet the requirements of a highly complex and at the same time critical system, such as airport security, a standard scenario process has been enhanced by matrix-based methods of complexity management. This approach allows analysis of threat scenario clusters with respect to the number of potentially effective security measures. The method developed allows proactive detection of weak points in the security architecture and thus reveals potential for improvement.